Steven C. Clemons Special to The Daily Yomiuri
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has turned out to be a
pretty tame lion. Swept into office in a wave of populist
euphoria that he might deliver his people and nation from
economic malaise and geopolitical obscurity, Koizumi was the
hope for liberal nationalism in Japan. After nearly six
decades of U.S. presence in Japan, some hoped that while
supporting the basic tenets of the U.S.-Japan security
alliance, he might at least shore up Japan's sovereignty and
general weight in the equation. Fast forward to the day of
U.S. President George W. Bush's 48-hour "Get out or face the
heat" warning to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and the actual
incursion into Iraq, and one sees Koizumi performing like one
of the most sycophantic prime ministers in Japan's history, at
least in matters relating to the United States.
Reacting to Bush's speech, Koizumi made clear that he
supports the Bush ultimatum to Saddam and that Japan will
endorse the invasion by U.S. and British troops. Reading as if
from talking points scripted by the White House National
Security Council staff, Koizumi embraced the plan to reach
back to U.N. resolutions 678, 687 and 1441 to justify the U.S.
action. It would be interesting to know whether Diet legal
counsel came to this conclusion on their own, or whether this
was a full intellectual import from Washington. Koizumi also
remarked that Japan would not participate in any military
action against Iraq "because of constitutional constraints,"
implying that if those tethers were not in place, Japan might
be up there on the front line with the Americans and the
British.
In the days before the attack on Iraq started, nearly 70
percent of the Japanese public disapproved of the imminent
attack on Iraq. Perhaps Koizumi would give a British Prime
Minister Tony Blair-like performance if he could, and commit
Japan to this war despite the ambivalence of the international
community and his own citizens. But to fall into lockstep
behind Bush now while maintaining "radio silence" during the
great debates in the United Nations in recent months relegates
Japan to servant and satellite of U.S. interests, rather than
a nation whose national identity is finally emerging from
behind U.S. hyper presence.
I am not an apologist for Saddam, nor am I patently against
any type of conflict that would topple him. However, the U.S.
political leadership has stumbled into this replay of the Gulf
War, generating numerous "friendly fire" casualties among its
allies, and failing to understand that the grand theater of
U.S. leadership requires that the United States appear as if
it can competently manage multiple crises in the world at
once. Otherwise, every thug and interest-maximizing government
in the world who has a score to settle, land to acquire, or
nearby nations to intimidate would use the point in time when
the global hegemon is tied down and distracted by Iraq to make
their moves. The unfolding debacle with North Korea
demonstrates the limited ability of the Bush administration to
"walk and chew gum" at the same time. Furthermore, it is
unclear whether the soft underbelly vulnerabilities of civil
infrastructure are any more hardened to the real threat of
terrorism than they were before the Sept 11, 2001, attacks.
Koizumi would be a better friend to the United States if he
had articulated his points of strong support for Bush,
combined with public counsel on Japan's concerns about the
manner and strategy that Bush was pursuing this war.
Two astonishing trends to observe in the world today are
that European power is on the rise and that China, a nation
targeted early by the Bush administration as the primary
object of our national security concerns, is looking like an
astonishingly stable power with upward of 50 billion dollars a
year in foreign direct investment pouring in. China is
laughing all of the way to the bank as this U.S.-led global
turmoil unfolds. Europe has chosen arenas to closely
collaborate with the United States while confronting the
United States in others. Japan, in contrast, has disappeared
from the scene. When asked a year ago why Japan was so
invisible in the great debates about global governance and in
most other international policy matters, Japanese Ambassador
to the United States Ryozo Kato said it was the wrong time for
Japan to stick its head up and the time to support the United
States was in times of crisis.
It is not in U.S. interests for Japan to appear as weak and
peripheral to world affairs as it now appears to so many.
Japan is a rich nation that clearly has economic challenges,
but it still ranks as the world's second largest economy and
maintains one of the largest and most competent defense forces
in the world. Yet no leader considers Japan a credible
architect in the unfolding world order. Japan's sycophantism
and acquiescence to the Bush administration on its Iraq policy
seem to harken back to the days when U.S. Gen. Douglas
MacArthur was sending orders to the first Occupation-era
leader, Prime Minister Kijuro Shidehara.
The United States needs a strong Japan, not a "yes man." It
needs a Japan that will collaborate on the realities of global
governance in economic and security dimensions. While Koizumi
promised a Japan with a fuller sense of itself and its
national potential, Japanese got a prime minister who is
perpetuating the image of Occupation Japan, lobotomized in
foreign policy and a supplicant to U.S. needs and whims.
While Koizumi might not have wanted to go the distance that
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has gone in distancing
Germany's interests from those of the United States, one can
clearly see that Japan has still not graduated from its
satellite status.
Clemons is executive vice president of the New America
Foundation, a centrist public policy institution in
Washington. He was also a member of the "Understanding
Tomorrow's Japan" task force of the U.S. Pacific Council on
International Policy.